On 20 August, Ecuador will vote in a historic referendum to suspend oil extraction and keep the remaining oil reserves in the ground in Block 43 or the ITT field. This field is located in the Yasuni National Park, in the heart of the Ecuadorian Amazon. This consultation represents a historic event. Its transcendence, in the context of the environmental crisis we are experiencing, goes far beyond Ecuador's borders. We who sign this message are economists, and from a responsible exercise of our profession, we argue that the most beneficial solution for Ecuador is to leave this oil in the ground - that is, voting YES for Yasuní. Here are our arguments.
Ecuador became an oil exporter in 1972, and for more than 50 years, this product has been the mainstay of its economy. Five decades are enough to prove that Ecuador has not developed by exporting oil. Massive social problems, as poverty, underemployment and inequality persist. Moreover, the oil-producing region of the Ecuadorian Amazon, destroyed by oil activity, is the poorest in the country. A more detailed analysis allows us to highlight the strategic advantages for the country of refraining definitively from oil extraction in the ITT and of moving towards an equitable and sustainable economy, based on the conservation of biodiversity.
Those who defend oil exploitation in the ITT argue that the state will lose 1.2 billion dollars a year if the field is closed, putting the national economy at risk. This figure is a huge exaggeration.
Let's start by acknowledging that the volume of oil extraction in the ITT is falling rapidly. According to the state-owned Petroecuador, the daily extraction rate is currently estimated at 55,000 barrels, and by 2024 it will only reach 47,000 barrels per day. Since the beginning of oil extraction in the ITT, the average price has been 51 dollars per barrel. With these assumptions, all taken from official sources, and estimating extraction costs at USD 35 per barrel for this field, this results in a fiscal revenue of only USD 275 million by 2024. In 2025, the value will even drop to 216 million, because extraction would already be only 37,000 barrels per day, and then decline rapidly in the following years to 2,000 barrels per day in 2040. This value of 275 million is less than one per cent of the Ecuadorian state budget this year. In addition, however, the huge environmental liabilities must be subtracted from this meagre income.
We can conclude, then, that the real revenues to be expected are less than a quarter of the figures presented by the advocates of oil extraction. To get an idea, this is equivalent, for example, to what the central government spends on salaries in 9 days. Such a loss can be compensated, even in the short term, quite easily.
It would be enough to combat, for example, tax evasion, which, according to ECLAC, amounts to 7 billion dollars a year. It is also urgent to collect the outstanding debts of the 500 largest debtors with the Internal Revenue System (SRI), which amount to 1,984 million dollars as of 6 June 2023. In other words, there would be enough resources, not only to cover the small difference that would result from not extracting oil from the ITT. Another interesting reference appears when we look at the tax exemptions, incentives and benefits granted annually: in 2021, the latest figure available, the exemptions were 6. 338.6 million dollars - more than double that year's oil revenues - which certainly benefited large economic groups; if we focus only on individuals, we find that the amount of these exonerations was 714 million dollars, of which the richest 10% of the population obtained a slice of 598 million dollars and the richest 1% of the population 148 million.Other actions will be necessary in terms of a comprehensive ecosocial and intercultural transition. For example, one of the measures to reactivate the economy and make way for the reduction of emissions in the context of climate change is the electrification of public transport, which in 5 years would generate more income than the costs of closing the ITT. Other actions, to cite just a couple from a long list, will have to prioritize activities such as community-based ecotourism and agroecology, based on Ecuador's greatest wealth: its ecological and cultural diversity.
A key point lies in the enormous biodiversity potential of Yasuní, which could offer enormous income from potential scientific discoveries - especially in the field of medicine - by promoting - through a genuine dialogue of knowledge - an adequate and respectful scientific prospection, simultaneously preventing this knowledge from being exploited by large transnational pharmaceutical companies.
We conclude that oil exploitation in Yasuní is not profitable for the Ecuadorian state in strict cost-benefit terms, even less so if the socio-environmental impacts of extraction are incorporated. It will bring neither employment nor social investment for society, given that, in addition, by law, the income generated by oil goes to the crippling servicing of the foreign debt. More comprehensive studies, based on multi-criteria analysis, also support keeping oil unexploited.
From a serious economic point of view and based on official figures, Ecuador will not sink or go bankrupt if Yasuní's oil is left in the ground. On the contrary, Ecuador would become a leader in the global fight against climate change, which would even bring a series of additional benefits. We acknowledge the need to work on global economic alternatives based on the recognition of common but differentiated responsibilities for climate change and of ecological debt, of which the countries of the South are the creditors.
Economists of the world say yes to the Yasuní!
If you are an economist and agree, please sign below.
Primeras firmas/ first signatures:
Carlos Larrea, Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar, Ecuador
Joan Martínez Alier, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona,
Cataluña
Pierre Salama, profesor emérito Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Francia
Roldan Muradian, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Presidente
de la Sociedad Internacional de Economía Ecológica, Brasil
Wilma Salgado, Ecuador
Enrique Leff, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias, México
Anitra Nelson, University of Melbourne, Australia, Australia
Jürgen Schuldt Lange, Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Perú
Oscar Ugarteche, Investigador de la UNAM, México
Clive Spash, Vienna University of Economics & Business, Austria
Lena Lavinas, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
Federico Demaria, Universitat de Barcelona, España
Rajeswari Raina, Shiv Nadar University, India
Koldo Unceta, Universidad del Pais Vasco, Pais Vasco
Eric Toussaint, Universidades Paris 8 y Liege, Bélgica
Rubén Lo Vuolo, CIEPP, Argentina
Jose De Echave, CooperAccion, Perú
Ian Gough, London School of Economics, Reino Unido
Paula Novo, Universidad de Leeds, Reino Unido
Hugo Jácome, FLACSO, Ecuador
Salvador Marconi, CEPAL, Ecuador
Murat Arsel, International Institute of Social Studies (ISS) of Erasmus University Rotterdam, Países Bajos
Lorenzo Pelegrini, International Institute of Social Studies (ISS) of Erasmus University Rotterdam, Países Bajos
María Cristina Vallejo, FLACSO, Ecuador
Rohit Azad, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India
Carolyn Kagan, Steady State Manchester, Reino Unido
Fander Falconi, FLACSO, Ecuador
David Barkin, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, México
Jorge Marchini,. Profesor Universidad de Buenos Aires. Vicepresidente de la Fundación para la Integración Latinoamericana (FILA), Coordinador del Grupo de Investigación sobre Integración Regional de CLACSO, Argentina
Omar Maluk, ESPOL, Ecuador
Wilsón Pérez, FLACSO Ecuador
Luciano Martínez, FLACSO Ecuador
Marco Romero, Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar, Ecuador
Julio Oleas, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Ecuador
Pedro Cango, Universidad Regional Amazónica IKIAM, Ecuador
Marcelo Varela, Universidad Central del Ecuador, IAEN, Ecuador
Salvador Peniche, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Económicas Administrativas, Universidad de Guadalajara, México
Ramiro Chimurris, Universidad de la República Oriental,
Uruguay
Mario Perez, Colombia
Frederic Hache, Green Finance Observatory, France
Hugo Cabieses Cubas, Perú
Ignasi Puig, Fundació ENT, Cataluña
Maria Azahara Mesa Jurado, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, México
Juanita Mayorga Acosta, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia
Raquel Neyra, Gt ecologias políticas desde el sur/Abya Yala Clacso, Perú
Judith Dellheim, SERI Germany, Alemania
Stefano Forzani, Universidad de Piura, Perú
Lorena Del Carpio Suarez, TierrActiva Perú, Perú
Junior Garcia, Universidade Federal do Paraná , Brasil
Jorge Enrique Forero, Universidad Andina Simón Bolivar, Ecuador
Aleida Azamar, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México
Jose Carlos Silva Macher, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Perú
Andrea Carolina Cardoso Diaz, Universidad del Magdalena, Colombia
Guillermo Peinado, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Argentina - Presidente de la Asociación Argentino Uruguaya de Economía Ecológica Argentina
Beto Lugo Martínez, CleanAirNow_EJ, Estados Unidos
Carolina Costa de Souza, PUC-SP, Brasil
Varun Sharma, Government of Telangana , India
Sujit Sinha, India
Caroline Whyte, Feasta, Irlanda
Jesús Ramos, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, España
Rahul Basu, The Future We Need, India
Nathalie Berta, Université of Reims Champagne Ardenne, Francia
Xavier Viteri, Universidad Andina Simón Bolivar, Ecuador
Adriana Merino, Ecuador
John Willoughby, American University, Washington, DC, Estados Unidos
Daniel Albarracín Sánchez, Cámara de Cuentas de Andalucía, España
João Machado Borges Neto, Pontifícia Universidade de São Paulo (PUC-SP), Brasil
Blanca Tena Estrada, University of Kassel, España
Ernesto Vivares, FLACSO, Ecuador
Stefan Einsiedel, Center for Social and Development Studies,, Munich School of Philosophy, Germany
Guillermo Rioja Ballivián, Iniciativa trinacional MAP (Perú, Brasil, Bolivia), Bolivia
Josael Jario Santos Lima , Instituto Ambiental Viramundo, Brasil
Armando Pillado Matheu Herrero, Perú
Fernando Villarán, Universidad Antonio Ruiz de Montoya, Perú
Humberto Cordero Galdós, Ministerio del Ambiente, Perú
John De Maesschalck, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Bélgica
Silvana Ramírez, Fundación Ecológica Arco Iris, Ecuador
Ariel Slipak, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
Max Lascano, Fundación Paisajes Sostenibles, Ecuador
Juan Crespo, Universidad del País Vasco, España
Matías Ramos, Univerdad Naciónal de Villa Mercedes, Argentina
Irma Elvira Ganoza Macchiavello, CPM Micaela Bastidas , Perú
Patricia Bermúdez, FLACSO, Ecuador
Guillermo Burneo Seminario, Comisede, Perú
Francisco Cantamutto, IIESS UNS-CONICET, Argentina
Edelmiro López Iglesias, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, España
Eduardo Lucita, EDI. Argentina, Economistas de Izquierda, Argentina
Mariano Féliz, CONICET - UNLP, Argentina
Daniel Ortega Pacheco, Former Minister of Environment , Ecuador
Mg. Carmen Rosario Tocón Armas, Acción internacional para la Salud, Perú
Rosa Sueiro, ILLA, centro de educación y comunicacion, Perú
Irmi Seidl, University of Zuerich, Suiza
Sam Butler, Estados Unidos
Rubén Flores Agreda, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador (PUCE), ECUADOR
Manuel Hidalgo Valdivia, Asesor Sindical , Chile
Luis Terán García Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo Ecuador
JORGE NAWEL CONFEDERACIÓN MAPUCHE DE NEUQUEN ARGENTINA
Diego Mancheno P PUCE Ecuador
Reginaldo Muniz Barreto Consultoria Brasil
Luis M. Sirumbal CEDAL Perú
Pablo Samaniego Ponce Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Ecuador
Juan de la Torre Universidad Central del Ecuador Ecuador
Dania Quirola-Suàrez Lund University, International Institute of Industrial Environmental Economics. Ecuador
Karina Forcinito Universidad Nacional de Gral Sarmiento/Universidad Nacional de Luján/Universidad de BuenosAires Argentina
Noemi GIOSA ZUAZUA CIEPP Argentina
Sofia Toledo UTPL Ecuador
María Alejandra Aguirre Armijos Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Ecuador
Ricardo Mancero Trujillo FLACSO Ecuador Ecuador
Adrian Beling The King's University (AB, Canada) / FLACSO Argentina Argentina
Efraín Jaramillo Jaramillo Colectivo de Trabajo J nzera Colombia
Dan Magallan Soriano Universidad de Guayaquil Ecuador
César Figueroa Vergara SEDYS Trujillo-Perú Perú
Sebastian Armendariz Olalla Economista España
Filka Sekulova Universitat Oberta de Catalunya Spain
Lourdes Beneria Universidad de Cornell España
Barbara Harriss-White Wolfson College, Oxford University UK
Evangelia Kouroumichaki Stimmuli for Social Change Greece
Arnim Scheidel Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona Spain
Emilio Padilla Rosa Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona España
Patricio Silva UCE Ecuador
Gerardo Aguirrezábal UNLu Argentina
Sam Bliss University of Vermont United States
Carlo Zanetti University of Padua Italy
Jon D. Erickson University of Vermont United States of America
Dan Magallán Soriano Universidad de Guayaquil Ecuador
Luís Enrique Pabón Capacho Asociación red de recicladores rehobot Colombia
Julia Cuadros CooperAcción Perú
Leah Temper CAPE Canada
Demián Alejandro García Orfanó Marabunta - Corriente Social y Política Argentina
Erik Olsen University of Missouri - Kansas City United States
Unai Villalba Eguiluz Universidad del País Vasco, UPV/EHU Euskal Herria
Leslie Beloque Pontificia Universidade Catolica de SP Brasil
Nina L. Smolyar University of Vermont USA
Francisco Hidalgo Flor Universidad Central del Ecuador Ecuador
John Cajas Guijarro Universidad Central del Ecuador Ecuador
Regina Maria d'Aquino Fonseca Gadelha FEA/PUC-SP Brasil
Huáscar Salazar Lohman Centro de Estudios Populares Bolivia
Dimitra Papavassiliou N/A Australia
Diana La Riva Pronabec Perú
Bengi Akbulut Concordia University Turkey
Carlos Benavente Gòmez Latindadd Nicaragua
Luis M. Sirumbal CEDAL Perú
Carmen Espinoza Movimiento Manuela Ramos Perú
Julio C. Gambina FISYP ARGENTINA
Rafael Burbano Rodríguez Escuela Politécnica Nacional Ecuador
Patricia E. (Ellie) Perkins York University, Toronto Canada
Vicente Losada Auditoría Ciudadana de la Deuda en Sanidad (Audita Sanidad)) España
William Sacher Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar Ecuador
Catherine Eyzaguirre Morales Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú Perú
Rosa Maria Marques PUC-SP Brasil
Dr. Marcos Castro Universidad de Málaga España
Mateo Villalba Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador (PUCE) Ecuador
Merwan Engineer Emeritus Professor, University of Victoria, Canada India
Andres Barreda Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico Mexico
Idoye Zabala Errazti Universidad del País Vasco País Vasco
Sergey Steblev Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona Spain
Enrique Elorza Centro pensamiento crítico Pedro Paz, Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Luis Argentina
Ralf Döring Thünen-Institut Germany
Maria R. Murmis Investigadora Asociada Universidad Andina Simón Bolivar - Quito Argentina
José Luis Vázquez de Castro Flacso Ecuador
Pascual G García Zamora Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas
Patricio F. López B. Flacso Ecuador
Celia Mieles ESPOL Ecuador
Pascual G García Zamora Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas México
Carlos Carrión Gonzalez Ecuador
Angelica Moreno Calderon Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales Colombia
Betty Espinosa FLACSO Ecuador
Beverly Keene Diálogo 2000 - Jubileo Sur Argentina
Lucival Silva Focolares Brasil Brasil
Francisco Román V Fundacion Central Ecuatoriana de Servicios Agrícolas (CESA) Ecuador
MARIA INES AMOROSO, Ecuador
Jerónimo Ibarra Díaz Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Ecuador
Jhonny Tamayo Verdezoto Universidad Central del Ecuador Ecuador
Rodrigo Albuja Chaves Centro de Investigaciones, Evaluación y Prospectiva, CIEP Ecuador
Carolina Portaluppi Castro Universidad Casa Grande Ecuador
Rodrigo Albuja Chaves Centro de Investigaciones, Evaluación y Prospectiva, CIEP Ecuador
Marisol Bigoni Ordóñez, Ecuador
Ángela Castillo Universidad de Nariño Colombia
Carina Sandoval Independiente Ecuador
Sayri Arotingo FLACSO Ecuador
Francisco Orlando Rosales Universidad Central del Ecuador Ecuador
Mariluz Nova-Laverde Universidad de La Salle Colombia
Felix Dorn Universidad de Viena Alemania
Camilo Andrés Guevara Universidad de La Salle Colombia
Manlio Javier Carreto R UNAM México
Martin Prochazka Czech Republic
Hector Guillen Romo Universidad Paris 8 Mexico
Giel Ton Institute of Development Studies Holanda
Oly Millán Campos Plataforma Ciudadana en Defensa de la Constitución Venezuela
Rodolfo Bejarano Latindadd Perú
Soumya Sahin West Bengal National University of Juridical Sciences India
Lea Brüderl Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development Germany
Feisal Mansoor Saradiel Party Sri Lanka
Alberto Acosta, Ecuador