Instructions: Rank the Plausibility and Impact of Each AI Scenario Parameter

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This project aims to develop a futures modeling framework for advanced AI scenario development. The goal is to cover the full spectrum of AI development paths and identify interesting combinations, or ideally, entirely new AI scenarios. The project aims to highlight risks and paths that receive less consideration (e.g., structural, decision/value erosion, failure cascades) and structure a framework of potential futures.

**Note: The survey questions are not strictly speaking "questions" and should be viewed rather as a ranking or scoring. Each question is a dimension (E.g., AI paradigm) with three conditions (e.g., current, new, hybrid). The goal is to rank each condition on its degree of plausibility and impact to create classes for the model (similar to the four quadrants of a risk matrix - https://tinyurl.com/riskmat). The extensive definitions below are only for reference (provided, based on feedback), if you understand each concept, such as takeoff, distribution, paradigm, alignment, you're probably good to go. **

- This project is not about prediction or forecast, nor statistics, but exploratory scenario development only.

1) Section 2, please rank the likelihood (plausibility) of each condition to occur (from highly likely to highly unlikely). Think in terms of plausibility. For details on the scale, see: http://tiny.cc/Risk_Scale

2) Section 3, please rank each condition from the highest potential benefit on stability, safety, or security (greatly increase) to the highest downside risk (greatly decrease). For conditions (e.g., technologies) that you don't believe could cause an increase or a decrease, just choose the best/worst option or leave it as "no effect." Rank from best to worst, assuming the condition has occurred. Think in terms of this as a continuum from best to worst.

All questions in the first section are the same in the second section. The only difference is the first set ranks likelihood (section 2), and the second set ranks impact (section 3).

For definitions: https://tinyurl.com/aidefin
Similar methodology: https://tinyurl.com/burgltort
For details on purpose and methodology, see: https://tinyurl.com/bergonio
The full folder with documents/definitions is here: https://tinyurl.com/AIfutures;

Frame of reference: Uncertain year between 2030 and 2100

I picked 2030-2100 just to ground the questions to a solid date range which is preferable for many participants. However, this project is ultimately timeframe agnostic. The original version had no date; the goal is to collect how you'd rank the likelihood of each of the below conditions irrespective of time. So please don't judge any of the rankings 2070 as a hard cutoff date.

The assumption is that AI systems are capable of reaching radically transformative abilities this century, with the ability to recursively self-improve. It is also assumed that additional catastrophic events that could disrupt development will not occur in the timeframe specified.

Definitions: Advanced AI and High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI)

For this project, advanced AI and High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) refer to a spectrum of AI systems that could bring radical change to the world, including unevenly powerful agents capable of independent decision making (human-level in several domains, less in others, superhuman in some) to human-level AGI and artificial superintelligence (ASI).

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