Economic Prediction Video Quiz

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A short quiz to ensure you understand the key points from the "Economic Prediction" video [https://youtu.be/dR5OYC64Klk]

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Record my email address with my response

What are the Bank of England's fan charts? *

2 points

A time series of historic data points

A snapshot of current macroeconomic indicators

A forecast of the single most likely path of future data points

A forecast of a range of likely paths of future data points

Which of the following macroeconomic variables do the Bank of England’s fan charts focus on? (select all that apply)

2 points

Real growth

Inflation

Interest rates

Money supply

Required

What is a typical horizon for economic forecasts?

2 points

6 months

1 year

2 years

10 years

Clear selection

What does GDP stand for? *

2 points

Gross Domestic Production

Gross Domestic Product

General Domestic Performance

General Domestic Product

What does CPI stand for? *

2 points

Consumption Price Index

Consumer Production Index

Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Information

What is the Bank of England’s inflation target?

2 points

Any positive, moderate rate

It depends on the state of the economy

The Bank of England target a fixed exchange rate and therefore inflation is free to fluctuate

Clear selection

Which statement is most accurate?

2 points

Past GDP figures are known with certainty but future GDP growth is difficult to forecast

Past GDP figures are subject to revision and future GDP growth is impossible to forecast

Past GDP figures are subject to revision and future GDP growth can be forecast with reasonable accuracy provided there are no major economic shocks

Past GDP figures are just as hard to measure as future GDP growth

Clear selection

Which statement is most accurate?

2 points

Macroeconomic data is available in real time and therefore it is easy to know when a recession begins

Recessions tend to be retrospectively defined based on data that becomes available over time

Clear selection

According to the video, under what circumstances do economic forecasts tend to be accurate? *

1 point

When things are stable

When unexpected things happen

Which London-based economic agency had the best track record at forecasting GDP during the global financial crisis?

2 points

The Bank of England

HSBC

Macro Econ

Economic Perspectives

Clear selection

Do you think economists saw the 2008 financial crisis coming? *

Yes

No - but we shouldn't expect them to

No - it was a major failure of the economics profession

Other:

What does the term “methodological monoculture” refer to?

2 points

The tendency for economic forecasters to use similar models, and therefore generate similar results

The fact that most economists tend to be based in major capital cities and lack experience of wider economic conditions

The unsuitability of formal economic models for understanding macroeconomic conditions

The disjoint between the arts and the sciences

Clear selection

Which of the following was not given as a reason for why economic prediction is (nigh) impossible?

2 points

It is hard to have a good working model of the macro economy

It is hard to obtain sufficient computing power to run complex models

It is hard to anticipate the decisions made by policymakers

It is hard to foresee how the public will respond to events

Clear selection

Which of the following mean that economic prediction during covid was almost impossible? (You must select all correct answers) *

1 point

You need to be a good economist

You need to be a good political economist

You need to be a good mass psycholgist

You need to be a good epidemiologist

You need to be a good friend

Required

What is a key difference between forecasts and scenarios?

2 points

Forecasts try to predict, but scenarios try to help you plan

Forecasts provide a plan for action, but scenarios are purely descriptive

Forecasts use actual historic data, but scenarios use invented data

Forecasts are scientific, but scenarios are unscientific

Clear selection

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