Risk analysis in financial modelling can involve deterministic risk measurement where you directly assess the potential for different revenue, cost, capital expenditure and other drivers to be different from the expected values.  Alternatively, risk analysis in financial modelling can be stochastic which involves incorporating volatility and time series equations in financial models. The risk analysis on-line course is separated into separate modules that allows you to move your financial modelling skills to a new level.  The majority of the course addresses efficient and flexible methods for adding deterministic risk into models (scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis).  Stochastic risk analysis is addressed with Monte Carlo Simulation in the final session. In addition to measuring risk, the course will discuss how you can incorporate different risk mitigation strategies in your models.
The course is designed to be practical and hands-on and demonstrate how you can include detailed risk analysis of demand and cost changes caused by the Corona crisis. Incorporation of risk analysis will include both corporate finance models and project finance models.

• Add a master scenario page and include scenario analysis in any model using the INDEX and the DATA TABLE functions within minutes.  The scenario analysis covers both variables that change over time and variables that have single values.
• Use the scenario analysis to create a sensitivity analysis that evaluates the effect of every variable on a multitude of output variables.
• Create a tornado analysis and spider diagram to illustrate the sensitivity analysis
• Add a special scenario analysis that allows one to use spinner boxes and dropdown boxes to change any value in a summary page.  
• Develop flexible break-even analyses that go along with the scenario analyses where one can evaluate how low a variable can fall before some financial measure (Debt/EBITDA, DSCR, LLCR, PLCR) reaches an unacceptable level.
• Use color codes to illustrate the structure of the scenario analysis that illustrates the source of the inputs and the destination of the scenario analysis
• Create scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis using VBA instead of data tables to make the analysis more flexible and efficient.
• Add Monte Carlo analysis to the file using simple VBA code and present probability distributions of output variables.

Financial Professionals / Corporate Finance / Financial Planning & Analysis / Business Analysis / Investment & Corporate Bankers / Strategic Planning / Risk Management / Project Accountant / Strategic Business Development / Corporate Development / Investment Management / Internal Auditors / Operational Process Owners / Business Management Professionals / Project or Project Finance Managers

Consultant, Professional Trainer, Author

The trainer has created innovative forward pricing, productivity measurement and investment valuation software for consulting clients throughout the United States. He has taught energy economics and finance throughout the world, and formulated significant government policy and corporate strategy in the U.S. His consulting clients include investment banks, commercial banks, research institutions and government agencies on a wide variety of complex valuation and advisory matters. He has constructed a unique framework for electricity price forecasting and valuation using production cost modelling techniques combined with option price theory and Monte Carlo simulation.He is also an adjunct professor at leading University where he teaches courses in microeconomics. Along with his practical experience that covers a multitude of major advisory projects, he has taught specialised courses in financial modelling, electricity pricing, option valuation, mergers and acquisitions and contracting to investment banks, commercial banks, industrial corporations and electric utility companies.
He was formerly Vice President at the First National Bank of Chicago where he directed analysis of energy loans and also created financial modelling techniques used in advisory projects. He has used the models in providing expert testimony on subjects ranging from capital structure to investments in multi-billion dollar nuclear plants to complex valuation of new investments. He received an MBA degree specialising in econometrics (with honors) from the University of Chicago and a BS degree in finance from the University of Illinois (with highest university honors). He has written many articles and is in the process of completing a textbook on valuation of electricity assets.