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Scenarios: Preparation
A short quiz to test how ready you are for the scenario planning module with Anthony J. Evans!!
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Did John Vary think smartphones will exist in 2030?
2 points
Yes
No
Clear selection
Which of these scenarios (which relate to the use of nuclear weapons) would be the most dangerous?
2 points
A remote atmospheric test
An atmospheric detonation above a specific country
A ground explosion within a specific country
Clear selection
Which of the following economic scenarios did Morgan Stanley think were most likely?
2 points
Things are improving by March 2020
Covid peaks in May 2020
The pandemic persists into Autumn 2020
Clear selection
Which company is famous for pioneering the scenario method?
1 point
BP
Exxon Mobil
Shell
Total
Clear selection
Which university is renowned for a particular way of doing scenario analysis?
1 point
Cambridge
ESCP
LSE
Oxford
Clear selection
What is a "long fuse, big bang" problem?
2 points
One with a noisy outcome
One related to the origins of the universe
One where the impact will take time to happen but have large consequences
One that has a single area of impact
Clear selection
Which statement is correct?
2 points
Scenario planning is one tool that can be used in conditions of uncertainty
Scenario planning is the only tool that can be used in conditions of uncertainty
Clear selection
Which of the following is NOT a commonly considered category for "driving forces"?
2 points
Political
Economic
Strategic
Technological
Clear selection
What is a "critical uncertainty"?
2 points
One that has the biggest impact on the world
One that is related to our main area of concern
One that is least likely to happen
One that can be approximated through a prability model
Clear selection
What is a suitable group size to engage in the scenario planning process?
2 points
1: scenarios are best done as a solo activity
5 or 6: the team needs to be small enough to work together intensively
20-30: the group need to incorporate a wide range of perspectives
100+: every employee needs to be involved
Clear selection
What is a suitable group size to construct specific scenarios
2 points
1: scenarios are best done as a solo activity
5 or 6: the team needs to be small enough to work together intensively
20-30: the group need to incorporate a wide range of perspectives
100+: every employee needs to be involved
Clear selection
Are you excited about the module?
Not really
1
2
3
4
5
Can't wait!!
Clear selection
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