This project aims to develop a futures modeling framework for advanced AI scenario development. The goal is to cover the full spectrum of AI development paths and identify interesting combinations, or ideally, entirely new AI scenarios. The project aims to highlight risks and paths that receive less consideration (e.g., structural, decision/value erosion, global failure cascades) and structure a framework of potential futures.
**Note: The survey questions are not strictly speaking "questions" and should be viewed rather as a ranking or scoring. Each question is a dimension (E.g., AI paradigm) with three conditions (e.g., current, new, hybrid). The goal is to rank each condition on its degree of plausibility and impact to create classes for the model (similar to the four quadrants of a risk matrix -
https://tinyurl.com/riskmat). The extensive definitions below are only for reference (provided, based on feedback), if you understand each concept, such as takeoff, distribution, paradigm, alignment, you're probably good to go. **
- This project is not about prediction or forecast, nor statistics, but exploratory scenario development only. Your best assessment is enough for this purpose and is highly valued. Further iterations will refine specifics.
This form lists several potential paths for high-level machine intelligence (HLMI). Each question is a dimension (e.g., takeoff speed) with three to four conditions (e.g., fast) on the left and asks the participant to:
1) Please rank the likelihood (plausibility) of each condition to occur (from highly likely to highly unlikely). Scale: Very unlikely= 5 - 20%, somewhat unlikely= 20-40%, even chance = 40-60%, somewhat likely= 60 - 80%, Very likely= 80-95%). For details on scale, see:
http://tiny.cc/Risk_Scale The survey responses will be used to create broad categories (e.g., these 500 scenarios are in x bucket), and then separated (mixed) and clustered for scenario development. I'm looking forward to sharing the results.
For further details on purpose and methodology, see:
http://tiny.cc/q2mquz, the full folder with documents/definitions is here:
https://tinyurl.com/AIfutures