October 12 Reading Group Articles
Below are the articles that have been suggested for the Oct 12 reading group, along with the reason why each one was suggested and some possible discussion questions.

Please vote by 10 PM on Friday, Oct 16.

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Is That Your True Rejection?
https://www.readthesequences.com/Is-That-Your-True-Rejection

Why this article?
Because I have spent whole conversations, sometimes whole lines of inquiry or whole years, trying to solve my own false rejections of ideas. Knowledge of this concept and quick, reflexive noticing of when I was proffering a false rejection would have saved me a lot of time.

Discussion questions:
* How do we practice noticing when we are not giving our true rejection?
* How do we (gentle?) interrogate whether someone else is not giving their true rejection?
* How do we get to true rejections faster, and how might we practice doing that?
* Alternately, is this notion of true and false rejections wrong or an unhelpful way to think about things?
What's Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It: Reflections After Reading 2578 Papers
https://fantasticanachronism.com/2020/09/11/whats-wrong-with-social-science-and-how-to-fix-it/

Why this article?
Good overview of the state of post replication crisis social sciences

Discussion questions:
* What heuristics do you use on whether a finding will replicate?
* If social psychology research is totally broken, what can we use instead?
Why prediction markets are bad at predicting who’ll be president
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/14/21137882/prediction-markets-bloomberg-sanders-president

Why this article:
It provides a thoughtful look at a thorny epistemic question, and it's long enough ago that we can evaluate it with the benefit of hindsight.

Discussion questions:
* Given these limitations, what should we infer from currently-existing prediction markets?
* What does this tell us about other ways of aggregating information?
The many tribes of 2020 election worriers: An ethnographic report
Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/01/many-tribes-2020-election-worriers-an-ethnographic-report/#comments-wrapper

Why this article:
I'm worried and I want to know whether I should be.

Discussion question: How worried should we be?
The Amish and Strategic Norms around Technology
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/36Dhz325MZNq3Cs6B/the-amish-and-strategic-norms-around-technology

Why this article:
Interesting ideas that we might be able to apply to our own lives

Discussion questions:
* What aspects of our lives do we want to protect from malign technical influences?
* Is it possible to get the benefits of the Amish strategy without the insularity?
Your preference *
Rank the articles from 1 (top preference) to 5 (bottom preference).  Ties are allowed.
1
2
3
4
5
True Rejection
Social Science
Prediction Markets
Election Worriers
The Amish
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