Counterfactual Probability Survey
Consider this  basic stochastic setup

1. a fair coin, Shiny, is minted on Monday

2. Because it is fair, Shiny has a 50% chance of landing heads and 50% of landing tails if flipped on Monday

3. Between Monday and Tuesday, Shiny is dropped in a corrosive liquid for the night.

4. As a result of the corrosion, on Tuesday Shiny has a 90% bias towards heads if flipped on Tuesday

5. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, Shiny is dropped again in the corrosive liquid. By Wednesday, it is unusable for flipping. Goodbye Shiny, you had a wonderful life.
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It is now Wednesday. What is your degree of credence in "if Shiny had been flipped on Monday, it would have landed heads"? *
no credence
maximal credence
It is now Wednesday. What is your degree of credence in "if Shiny had been flipped on Tuesday, it would have landed heads"? *
no credence
maximal credence
It is now Wednesday. What is your degree of credence in "if Shiny had been flipped (at a randomly picked time between Monday or Tuesday), it would have landed heads"? *
no credence
maximal credence
Now let us add to the scenario. Not only was Shiny minted, but it was in fact flipped on Tuesday. What is your degree of credence in "If Shiny had been flipped on Tuesday, it would have landed heads" under this slightly enhanced scenario? *
no credence
maximal credence
Let's add one last thing. Shiny was minted, flipped on Tuesday and in fact landed heads.  What is your degree of credence in "If Shiny had been flipped on Tuesday, it would have landed heads" under this further enhanced scenario? *
no credence
maximal credence
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