Citizen's Morale: Model Accuracy in Election Predictions
How do Election Prediction Models impact citizens’ morale during vote counting, and what factors influence their accuracy?

A Prediction model is a mathematical or statistical representation that estimates an outcome based on input features. In the context of Elections, model accuracy is crucial because it directly impacts the reliability of election predictions, influencing voter confidence, policy decisions, and democratic processes. 

My name is Mookodi Mokoatle and I am Data Enthusiast and I would love to hear your inputs on the above topic. 


This inquiry is part of my journey as an aspiring Data Scientist, and your input will significantly contribute to the development of my online profile for prospective employers.

Your contribution will greatly assist me in advancing towards my dream career.

The scope of this study is only limited to South Africans.

I appreciate your participation in advance. 👏🏽🙏🏼

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Background Question (Optional):

Before we dive into the main aspects, could you share a bit about your background? This helps me appreciate the diversity of perspectives.

What career background do you come from? 
Example: Engineering, Education, Data Science etc
Province:

Please select the province in which you reside within South Africa.

If you live outside South Africa, please indicate other.
 *
Metropolitan Municipalities:

South Africa's largest cities are governed as metropolitan municipalities. These municipalities have unified authority over all municipal functions within their areas.

Please select the metropolitan municipality closest to your location:
 *
Required
District Municipality:

Outside the Metropolitan areas, the rest of South Africa is divided into 44 district municipalities.

Please enter the name of your District Municipality:
Local Municipality:

The District Municipalities are further divided into a total of 205 local municipalities. A local municipality typically includes one or more towns, along with surrounding villages and rural areas.

Please enter the name of your Local Municipality:
Zip Code of Your Voting District:

Please provide the zip code of your voting district (if applicable)
Age Range:

Please select your age range:
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Education:

Please select your highest level of education:
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Level of Education:

Please select your specific level of education:
 *
Did you participate in these Elections? *
If you answered No above, kindly elaborate on reasons why you did not participate.
Model Accuracy Aspects 
Please rate the following aspects based on their impact on model accuracy (1 = Low Impact, 5 = High Impact).

Feel free to provide additional comments if desired.
Understanding of Prediction Models:

On a scale of 1 to 5, rate our confidence levels in analysis and comfortably interpreting Election Prediction Models. *
Not Confident
Very Confident
Dataset Size:

How much does the size of the dataset (Number of voters observed) affect model accuracy?
 *
Low Impact
High Impact
Train-Test Split:

How critical is the choice of train-test split ratio (e.g., 70-30, 80-20) for model accuracy?

Example
A 70:30 split means that 70% of voter observations are utilized to train the model to predict and forecast the election outcomes in advance, while the remaining 30% of the observations are used to test the model's accuracy before it is deployed.
 *
Low Impact
High Impact
Variability in Data:

To what extent does variability in the data (e.g., diverse voter behavior, late turnout) impact model accuracy?
 *
Low Impact
High Impact
Relevance of Historical Election Data:

What level of impact does historical data (Data from previous elections) used in an election play on developing a prediction model?
 *
Low Impact
High Impact
Variability in Elections:

Do you feel that these Elections where/are different from the previous Elections we have hosted as a Country? *
How are you feeling today?

Please kindly rate your mood on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 indicating Sad emotions and 5 indicating happy emotions.
Sad
Happy
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Next Elections:

Are you looking forward to casting your Vote on the next Elections? *
Please share any additional comments or recommendations that you would like to add.

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