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P(DOOM) Survey
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Are you familiar with the concept of P(DOOM)?
Not Famliar
1
2
3
4
5
Familiar
Clear selection
What do you think the probability is that AI will cause human extinction (P(DOOM)) ?
Your answer
Are you familiar with the concept of Foom?
Not Familiar
1
2
3
4
5
Familiar
Clear selection
W
hat is the probability rapid uncontrolled AI growth will cause human extinction (Foom)?
Your answer
How familiar are you with the AI Control Problem?
not familiar
1
2
3
4
5
familiar
Clear selection
How likely is it that AI will fail to follow human instructions, leading to human extinction (AI control problem)?
Your answer
How familiar are you with the concept of AI Alignment?
Not Familiar
1
2
3
4
5
Familiar
Clear selection
What is the probability that an AI with a subtly misguided goal results in human extinction (AI Alignment failure)?
Your answer
Are you familiar with the theory that a race to build the most powerful AI will cause human extinction?
Not familiar
1
2
3
4
5
Familiar
Clear selection
What is the probability that a race to build the most powerful AI will cause human extinction?
Your answer
Are you familiar with the Vulnerable World hypothesis?
Not Familiar
1
2
3
4
5
Familiar
Clear selection
What is the probability that AI will enable humans to create Weapons of Mass Destruction causing human extinction (Vulnerable World)?
Your answer
Are you familiar with the argument AI will economically outcompete Humans causing extinction?
Not Familiar
1
2
3
4
5
Familiar
Clear selection
W
hat is the probability AI will economically outcompete Humans causing human extinction?
Your answer
Are you familiar with the theory that AI will gradually replace humans or that humans will merge with AI to form a new species?
Not Familiar
1
2
3
4
5
Familiar
Clear selection
What is the probability that AI will gradually replace humans or that humans will merge with AI to form a new species causing human extinction?
Your answer
Do you consider there to be a significant risk that AI will cause human extinction not arising from one of the previous scenarios? (please describe)
Your answer
What is the risk that AI will cause human extinction not arising from one of the previous scenarios?
Your answer
Add your responses to questions about each type of extinction
Your answer
Considering your response to the previous question, would you like to change your answer to "
What do you think the probability is that AI will cause human extinction (P(DOOM)) ?"
yes
No
Clear selection
After considering your answer, what do you think is the probability that AI will cause human extinction (P(DOOM))?
Your answer
Do you consider yourself EA or E/ACC?
EA
E/ACC
Do you consider yourself an expert in any of the following areas?
Statistics
Machine Learning
AI
AI Safety
Have you ever published a paper in a reputable journal on one of these topics?
Yes
No
Clear selection
Have you ever trained a Deep Learning Neural Network as part of your paid employment to solve a real-world problem?
Yes
No
Clear selection
Have you ever posted/commented on LessWrong.org?
Yes
No
Clear selection
How often do you use ChatGPT or another AI Chatbot?
every day
1
2
3
4
5
less than once a month
Clear selection
How often do you use Dalle/Midjourney/Stable Diffusion or other AI art tools?
Every day
1
2
3
4
5
less than once a month
Clear selection
How often do you use AI tools (of any kind) as part of your job?
Every Day
1
2
3
4
5
Less than once a month
Clear selection
Please write one sentence to convince me you are human.
Your answer
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