The Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament is a new project led by Phil Tetlock's research team focused on forecasting potential predictors of existential risk. The tournament will elicit forecasts on the future of artificial intelligence, biosecurity risk, climate change, and nuclear war in the short-term (<3 years), medium-term (10 years), and long-term (30+ years). It will involve teaming up subject-matter experts with superforecasters. Participants will compete both on forecasting accuracy and the persuasiveness of the rationales behind their forecasts.

If you might be interested to participate in this tournament, please provide your email below. We will notify you when additional information is available. In particular, we will provide a more detailed overview of the tournament and a longer survey for potential participants in the next couple of weeks as we begin broader recruiting efforts.