One of the goals of the scenario construction process is to gain a better understanding of the underlying assumptions that frame policy questions and management actions. While the issues facing the area are complex and are defined by subtle shades of gray, a first step toward uncovering the assumptions is to think in more stark terms: Best and Worst.
This exercise is meant to be as expansive as possible. The notions of best and worst can (and do) include many concerns, and this early stage of the scenario development process should include as many topics as possible. One of the goals of this process is to help to clarify issues and, more importantly, understand interrelationships between them. In order to chart all the possible-plausible-feasible connections between issues and actions, we first need to establish the edges of the map. Therefore, include everything that crosses your mind.
Think of the notions of "best" and "worst" as absolute ideals. "Kind of good" and "sort of bad" are neither sufficiently superlative nor adequately awful. Also, do not limit yourself with concerns about pragmatics and practicalities. Further, no notion of time should be associated with the best and worst conditions—that is, they do not necessarily exist in the past or the future. The response should capture your sense of the fundamentally best and worst possible states for the region.
With this type of exercise, it is sometimes easy (too easy) to describe the world by polar opposites and as zero-sum games. The "best" situation is reduced to having an abundance of something good (whatever it is) and the "worst" is having none of it. Also, what is best for one person or group is sometimes narrowly categorized as being achieved only at the expense of creating the worst for another. Such relationships may accurately describe some of the workings of the world; however, they do not describe all relationships. While the presence of something might contribute to an ideal situation, its lack might not necessarily contribute to a worst case.
