Instructions: Rank the Plausibility and Impact of Each Scenario Parameter
This project aims to develop an alternative futures modeling framework for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) scenario development. This is the first time this method (GMA) has been applied to AI risk.

**Note: This project is not for prediction and is not aiming for precise probabilities, only to assess a broad range of possible scenario conditions (including the speculative and subjective) **

This form lists several potential paths for advanced AI. Each question is a dimension (e.g., takeoff speed) with three/four options (conditions) on the left and asks the participant to:
 
1) In section 2, please rank the likelihood (plausibility) of each condition to occur (from highly likely to highly unlikely).

2) In section 3, please rank the degree to which each condition could impact social stability or security (greatly increase to greatly decrease). For conditions (e.g., technologies) that you can't determine an increase or a decrease, just choose the best option in your view or leave as "no effect."

*All questions in the first section are the same in the second section. The only difference is the first set ranks likelihood (section 2), and the second set ranks impact. *

For further details on purpose and methodology, see here: https://tinyurl.com/AIfutures 
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Frame of reference: Uncertain year between 2030 and 2100
I picked 2030-2070 just to ground the questions to a solid date range which is preferable for many. However, this project is ultimately timeframe agnostic. The original version had no date; the goal is to collect how you'd rank the likelihood of each of the below conditions irrespective of time. So please don't judge any of the rankings 2070 as a hard cutoff date.

The assumption is that AI systems are capable of reaching radically transformative abilities this century, with the ability to recursively self-improve. It is also assumed that additional catastrophic events that could disrupt development will not occur in the timeframe specified.
Definitions: Advanced AI and High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI)
Advanced AI and High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) refers to a spectrum of AI systems that could bring radical change to the world, including unevenly powerful agent systems capable of autonomous decision making (human in several domains, superhuman in others) to human-level artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI). I intend to use both terms interchangeably in this project to refer to transformative AI systems.
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