Elections Daily 2022 Political Pick 'Em Challenge

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Test your election prognostication skills with Elections Daily's 2022 Political Pick 'Em Challenge! Place your bets below.

Rules:

For each race, please select which outcome you think is more likely. The contestant or contestants with the most correct picks at the end will be crowned the winner(s).

For questions labeled "Guess the Final Margin", the candidate and the listed margin is what Elections Daily believes is the most likely outcome. When you pick, you are not picking the winner. You are picking if the favorite will win by more or less than the listed margin (or lose).

For other bets, please follow the instructions listed on the question.

All selections are final. Picks will close at 11:59 pm on Monday, November 7th.

Email *

What's your Twitter handle, if you have one?

Alaska Senate

Murkowski wins by more than 8%

Murkowski wins by less than 8% OR any other candidate wins

Clear selection

Alaska Bonus: Does Tshibaka lead Murkowski in any round of ranked choice voting, regardless of who wins?

Yes, she will lead in at least one round.

No, she will trail in every round.

Clear selection

Arizona Governor
*

Lake wins by more than 1.5%

Lakes wins by less than 1.5% OR Hobbs wins

Arizona Senate
*

Kelly wins by more than 2%

Kelly wins by less than 2% OR Masters wins

Florida Governor
*

DeSantis wins by more than 9.5%

DeSantis wins by less than 9.5% OR Crist wins

Florida Senate
*

Rubio wins by more than 9.5%

Rubio wins by less than 9.5% OR Demings wins

Florida Bonus: Will either DeSantis or Rubio win Miami-Dade County?

Yes, at least one of them will win it.

No, neither will win it.

Clear selection

Georgia Governor
*

Kemp wins by more than 6.5%

Kemp wins by less than 6.5% OR Abrams wins

Georgia Senate
*

Warnock wins by more than 1.5%

Warnock wins by less than 1.5% OR Walker wins

Georgia Senate - Does the Race Go to Runoff? *

Yes

Kansas Governor
*

Kelly wins by more than 1.5%

Kelly wins by less than 1.5% OR Schmidt wins

Maine Governor
*

Mills wins by more than 6.5%

Mills wins by less than 6.5% OR LePage wins

Michigan Governor
*

Whitmer wins by more than 4.5%

Whitmer wins by less than 4.5% OR Dixon wins

North Carolina Senate

Budd wins by more than 4.5%

Budd wins by less than 4.5% OR Beasley wins

Clear selection

New Hampshire
*

Hasan wins by more than 5%

Hasan wins by less than 5% OR Bolduc wins

New Mexico Governor
*

Lujan-Grisham wins by more than 2%

Lujan-Grisham wins by less than 2% OR Ronchetti wins

Nevada Governor
*

Lombardo wins by more than 2%

Lombaro wins by less than 2% OR Sisolak wins

Nevada Senate
*

Laxalt wins by more than 1.2%

Laxalt wins by less than 1.2% OR Cortez Masto wins

Nevada Bonus: Do the votes for "None of These Candidates" exceed the winner's margin in either statewide race?

Yes

Clear selection

New York Governor
*

Hochul wins by more than 12%

Hochul wins by less than 12% OR Zeldin wins

Ohio Senate
*

Vance wins by more than 8%

Vance wins by less than 8% OR Ryan wins

Oklahoma Governor
*

Stitt wins by more than 10%

Stitt wins by less than 10% OR Hofmeister wins

Oregon Governor
*

Drazan wins by more than 1%

Drazan wins by less than 1% OR loses

Pennsylvania Governor
*

Shapiro wins by more than 8.5%

Shapiro wins by less than 8.5% OR Mastriano wins

Pennsylvania Senate
*

Oz wins by more than 2%

Oz wins by less than 2% OR Fetterman wins

How much does Oz overperform Mastriano in Chester and Bucks Counties? *

10% better than Mastriano in both

10% better in Chester, less than 10% better in Bucks

10% better in Bucks, less than 10% better in Chester

Less than 10% better in both

Minimal overperformance (<1%) compared to Mastriano in either

South Dakota Governor
*

Noem wins by more than 15%

Noem wins by less than 15% OR Smith wins

Texas Governor
*

Abbott wins by more than 10.5%

Abbott wins by less than 10.5% OR O'Rourke wins

Utah Senate
*

Lee wins by more than 15%

Lee wins by less than 15% OR McMullin wins

Washington Senate
*

Murray wins by more than 12%

Murray wins by less than 12% OR Smiley wins

Wisconsin Governor
*

Evers wins by more than 0.3%

Evers wins by less than 0.3% OR Michels wins

Wisconsin Senate
*

Johnson wins by more than 4%

Johnson wins by less than 4% OR Barnes wins

Overall Senate - Final Republican Seats - 50.5
*

Republicans win over 50.5 seats

Republicans win under 50.5 seats

Overall House - Guess the Net Change - R+15
*

Republicans gain 15 seats or more

Republicans gain less than 15 seats OR Democrats gain seats

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Yes

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