We're trying to figure out whether people would use a news website with built-in prediction markets.

In a prediction market, you can use real money or play money ('non-cash tokens') to buy or sell a contract that pays off if and only if a specific event occurs. For example, a contract could be worth $1 if Boris Johnson remains the UK Prime Minister on June 1st and $0 otherwise. These contracts are freely traded so that their price reflects the group's view of the probability of an event resolving in one way or the other, thus creating a prediction.

There is some evidence that prediction markets can perform better than individual forecasters, providing a useful source of information about future events. For example, several large companies have used internal prediction markets to predict the success of new products. We think there is real potential for prediction markets to give the world reliable predictions about important events that affect millions around the globe. We'd love to know if you think it's a good idea.